Enabling Electronic Prognostics Using Thermal Data

Prognostics is a process of assessing the extent of deviation or degradation of a product from its expected normal operating condition, and then, based on continuous monitoring, predicting the future reliability of the product. By being able to determine when a product will fail, procedures can be developed to provide advanced warning of failures, optimize maintenance, reduce life cycle costs, and improve the design, qualification and logistical support of fielded and future systems. In the case of electronics, the reliability is often influenced by thermal loads, in the form of steady-state temperatures, power cycles, temperature gradients, ramp rates, and dwell times. If one can continuously monitor the thermal loads, in-situ, this data can be used in conjunction with precursor reasoning algorithms and stress-and-damage models to enable prognostics. This paper discusses approaches to enable electronic prognostics and provides a case study of prognostics using thermal data.